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ADR Jicaral vs Guadalupe FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

ADR Jicaral
ADR Jicaral
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Guadalupe FC
Guadalupe FC
12/15/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - FinalsCancha de la Asociación Cívica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

ADR Jicaral49%
×Draw23%
Guadalupe FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADR Jicaral
1.76
Guadalupe FC
1.26

ADR Jicaral creates 40% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 37 away

creates per match

ADR Jicaral
2.25
Guadalupe FC
1.65

allows per match

ADR Jicaral
0.88
Guadalupe FC
1.27

finishing

ADR Jicaral+0.00on par
Guadalupe FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADR Jicaral ↓

Guadalupe FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

ADR Jicaral or draw
73%
ADR Jicaral or Guadalupe FC
77%
Draw or Guadalupe FC
51%

Winning margin

ADR Jicaral wins by 2+
27%
Guadalupe FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ADR Jicaral 1+ goals
83%
ADR Jicaral 2+ goals
52%
ADR Jicaral 3+ goals
26%
Guadalupe FC 1+ goals
72%
Guadalupe FC 2+ goals
36%
Guadalupe FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

ADR Jicaral (draw refunded)
64%
Guadalupe FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADR Jicaral at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.88 · 97 matches

Guadalupe FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADR Jicaral attack 2.25 + Guadalupe FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.76

Guadalupe FC attack 1.65 + ADR Jicaral defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ADR Jicaral scores more
49%
level
23%
Guadalupe FC scores more
27%

ADR Jicaral at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "ADR Jicaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ADR Jicaral vs Guadalupe FC

Guadalupe FC beat ADR Jicaral 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Cancha de la Asociación Cívica in Jicaral.