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Guadalajara vs Atlético Ibañés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Guadalajara
Guadalajara
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Ibañés
Atlético Ibañés
3/7/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 28Estadio Pedro Escartín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Guadalajara53%
×Draw26%
Atlético Ibañés21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalajara
1.48
Atlético Ibañés
0.82

Guadalajara creates 80% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 30 away

creates per match

Guadalajara
1.79
Atlético Ibañés
1.07

allows per match

Guadalajara
0.58
Atlético Ibañés
1.17

finishing

Guadalajara+0.00on par
Atlético Ibañés+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara ↓

Atlético Ibañés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guadalajara or draw
79%
Guadalajara or Atlético Ibañés
74%
Draw or Atlético Ibañés
47%

Winning margin

Guadalajara wins by 2+
27%
Atlético Ibañés wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Guadalajara 1+ goals
77%
Guadalajara 2+ goals
43%
Guadalajara 3+ goals
19%
Atlético Ibañés 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Ibañés 2+ goals
20%
Atlético Ibañés 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara (draw refunded)
72%
Atlético Ibañés (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.58 · 43 matches

Atlético Ibañés away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara attack 1.79 + Atlético Ibañés defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atlético Ibañés attack 1.07 + Guadalajara defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Guadalajara scores more
53%
level
26%
Atlético Ibañés scores more
21%

Guadalajara at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Guadalajara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guadalajara vs Atlético Ibañés

Atlético Ibañés beat Guadalajara 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Escartín in Guadalajara.