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Atlético Ibañés vs Guadalajara — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Atlético Ibañés
Atlético Ibañés
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Guadalajara
Guadalajara
10/13/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 9Estádio Municipal de Casas Ibañés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Ibañés34%
×Draw29%
Guadalajara37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Ibañés
1.10
Guadalajara
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 43 away

creates per match

Atlético Ibañés
1.30
Guadalajara
1.37

allows per match

Atlético Ibañés
0.96
Guadalajara
0.91

finishing

Atlético Ibañés+0.00on par
Guadalajara+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Ibañés ↓

Guadalajara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Ibañés or draw
63%
Atlético Ibañés or Guadalajara
71%
Draw or Guadalajara
66%

Winning margin

Atlético Ibañés wins by 2+
14%
Guadalajara wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Atlético Ibañés 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Ibañés 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Ibañés 3+ goals
10%
Guadalajara 1+ goals
69%
Guadalajara 2+ goals
33%
Guadalajara 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atlético Ibañés (draw refunded)
48%
Guadalajara (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Ibañés at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

Guadalajara away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Ibañés attack 1.30 + Guadalajara defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.10

Guadalajara attack 1.37 + Atlético Ibañés defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Ibañés scores more
34%
level
29%
Guadalajara scores more
37%

Guadalajara at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guadalajara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Ibañés 3 – 1 Guadalajara

Atlético Ibañés beat Guadalajara 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Casas Ibañés in Casas-Ibañés.