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Guadalajara Chivas vs Atletico San Luis — Liga MX 2026

Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis
11/9/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 17Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas48%
×Draw25%
Atletico San Luis27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalajara Chivas
1.57
Atletico San Luis
1.11

Guadalajara Chivas creates 41% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 124 away

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.42
Atletico San Luis
1.19

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.04
Atletico San Luis
1.73

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par
Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Atletico San Luis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw
73%
Guadalajara Chivas or Atletico San Luis
75%
Draw or Atletico San Luis
52%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
25%
Atletico San Luis wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
79%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
46%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
21%
Atletico San Luis 1+ goals
67%
Atletico San Luis 2+ goals
30%
Atletico San Luis 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
64%
Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.04 · 147 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.73 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.42 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.57

Atletico San Luis attack 1.19 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more
48%
level
25%
Atletico San Luis scores more
27%

Guadalajara Chivas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Guadalajara Chivas 0–1 Atletico San Luis

Atletico San Luis beat Guadalajara Chivas 1-0 in Liga MX on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio AKRON in Zapopan.