Atletico San Luis 2–3 Guadalajara Chivas

Atletico San Luis

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Guadalajara Chivas

1/31/2026

Liga MX · Clausura - 4Estadio Alfonso Lastras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Atletico San Luis36%

×Draw26%

Guadalajara Chivas38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico San LuisExpected goals in this matchGuadalajara Chivas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.34

Atletico San Luis

1.29

Guadalajara Chivas

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 146 away

1.36

creates per match

1.18

1.50

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Atletico San Luis

1.36

Guadalajara Chivas

1.18

allows per match

Atletico San Luis

1.50

Guadalajara Chivas

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico San Luis ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atletico San Luis or draw

62%

Atletico San Luis or Guadalajara Chivas

74%

Draw or Guadalajara Chivas

64%

Winning margin

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

16%

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

72%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

37%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

14%

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

74%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

39%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

48%

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico San Luis at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.50 · 124 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico San Luis attack 1.36 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.18 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atletico San Luis scores more

36%

level

26%

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

38%

Guadalajara Chivas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara Chivas

Guadalajara Chivas beat Atletico San Luis 3-2 in Liga MX on January 31, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Alfonso Lastras in San Luis de Potosi.

Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara Chivas