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Guacuano U20 vs Brasilis U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Guacuano U20
Guacuano U20
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Brasilis U20
Brasilis U20
Erik 90+5'
R. Costa da Cruz 63' (pen)
Vitinho 9'
Felipe 6'
Matheus 81'
Victor 31'
4/26/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Carlos Nelson Bueno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guacuano U2045%
×Draw22%
Brasilis U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guacuano U20
1.90
Brasilis U20
1.60

Guacuano U20 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Guacuano U20
1.60
Brasilis U20
1.20

allows per match

Guacuano U20
2.00
Brasilis U20
2.20

finishing

Guacuano U20+0.00on par
Brasilis U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 68Under: 3268%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guacuano U20 ↓

Brasilis U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Guacuano U20 or draw
67%
Guacuano U20 or Brasilis U20
78%
Draw or Brasilis U20
55%

Winning margin

Guacuano U20 wins by 2+
25%
Brasilis U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Guacuano U20 1+ goals
85%
Guacuano U20 2+ goals
56%
Guacuano U20 3+ goals
29%
Brasilis U20 1+ goals
80%
Brasilis U20 2+ goals
47%
Brasilis U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Guacuano U20 (draw refunded)
58%
Brasilis U20 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guacuano U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Brasilis U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guacuano U20 attack 1.60 + Brasilis U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Brasilis U20 attack 1.20 + Guacuano U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guacuano U20 scores more
45%
level
22%
Brasilis U20 scores more
33%

Guacuano U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guacuano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Felipe
9'
Vitinho
31'
Victor
63'
R. Costa da CruzPenalty
81'
Matheus
90+5'
Erik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Guacuano U20 4–2 Brasilis U20

Guacuano U20 beat Brasilis U20 4-2 in Paulista - U20 on April 26, 2024.

Goals: Felipe (6'), Vitinho (9'), Victor (31'), R. Costa da Cruz (63' pen), Matheus (81'), Erik (90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Carlos Nelson Bueno in Mogi Guaçu, São Paulo.