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Brasilis U20 vs Guacuano U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Brasilis U20
Brasilis U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guacuano U20
Guacuano U20
5/31/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8CT do Brasilis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Brasilis U2051%
×Draw23%
Guacuano U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brasilis U20
1.80
Guacuano U20
1.20

Brasilis U20 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Brasilis U20
1.80
Guacuano U20
0.60

allows per match

Brasilis U20
1.80
Guacuano U20
1.80

finishing

Brasilis U20+0.00on par
Guacuano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasilis U20 ↓

Guacuano U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Brasilis U20 or draw
75%
Brasilis U20 or Guacuano U20
77%
Draw or Guacuano U20
49%

Winning margin

Brasilis U20 wins by 2+
28%
Guacuano U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Brasilis U20 1+ goals
83%
Brasilis U20 2+ goals
54%
Brasilis U20 3+ goals
27%
Guacuano U20 1+ goals
70%
Guacuano U20 2+ goals
34%
Guacuano U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brasilis U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Guacuano U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasilis U20 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Guacuano U20 away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasilis U20 attack 1.80 + Guacuano U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.80

Guacuano U20 attack 0.60 + Brasilis U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Brasilis U20 scores more
51%
level
23%
Guacuano U20 scores more
25%

Brasilis U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Brasilis U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Brasilis U20 2–0 Guacuano U20

Brasilis U20 beat Guacuano U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at CT do Brasilis in Águas de Lindóia, São Paulo.