Guacuano U20 2–3 Aguai U20: Result & Stats

Guacuano U20

FT

2 – 3

Aguai U20

4/12/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Carlos Nelson Bueno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Guacuano U2044%

×Draw23%

Aguai U2033%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guacuano U20Expected goals in this matchAguai U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.52

Guacuano U20

1.80

Aguai U20

1.52

Guacuano U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 20 away

1.60

creates per match

1.05

2.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Guacuano U20

1.60

Aguai U20

1.05

allows per match

Guacuano U20

2.00

Aguai U20

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guacuano U20+0.00on par

Aguai U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guacuano U20 ↓

Aguai U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Guacuano U20 or draw

67%

Guacuano U20 or Aguai U20

77%

Draw or Aguai U20

56%

Winning margin

Guacuano U20 wins by 2+

24%

Aguai U20 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Guacuano U20 1+ goals

83%

Guacuano U20 2+ goals

54%

Guacuano U20 3+ goals

27%

Aguai U20 1+ goals

78%

Aguai U20 2+ goals

45%

Aguai U20 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Guacuano U20 (draw refunded)

58%

Aguai U20 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guacuano U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Aguai U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guacuano U20 attack 1.60 + Aguai U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Aguai U20 attack 1.05 + Guacuano U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guacuano U20 scores more

44%

level

23%

Aguai U20 scores more

33%

Guacuano U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guacuano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff