Aguai U20 0–1 Guacuano U20: Result & Stats

Aguai U20

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guacuano U20

Unknown 65'

5/17/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Dr. Leonardo Guaranha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Aguai U2048%

×Draw28%

Guacuano U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aguai U20Expected goals in this matchGuacuano U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.85

Aguai U20

1.34

Guacuano U20

0.85

Aguai U20 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 5 away

0.89

creates per match

0.60

1.11

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Aguai U20

0.89

Guacuano U20

0.60

allows per match

Aguai U20

1.11

Guacuano U20

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aguai U20+0.00on par

Guacuano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aguai U20 ↓

Guacuano U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Aguai U20 or draw

76%

Aguai U20 or Guacuano U20

72%

Draw or Guacuano U20

52%

Winning margin

Aguai U20 wins by 2+

23%

Guacuano U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Aguai U20 1+ goals

74%

Aguai U20 2+ goals

39%

Aguai U20 3+ goals

15%

Guacuano U20 1+ goals

57%

Guacuano U20 2+ goals

21%

Guacuano U20 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Aguai U20 (draw refunded)

67%

Guacuano U20 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aguai U20 at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Guacuano U20 away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aguai U20 attack 0.89 + Guacuano U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.34

Guacuano U20 attack 0.60 + Aguai U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aguai U20 scores more

48%

level

28%

Guacuano U20 scores more

24%

Aguai U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aguai U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

82'

90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff