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Guabirá vs Club Universitario — Primera División 2019

Guabirá
Guabirá
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Club Universitario
Club Universitario
5/20/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 16Estadio Gilberto Parada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Guabirá62%
×Draw22%
Club Universitario17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guabirá
1.92
Club Universitario
0.88

Guabirá creates 118% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 22 away

creates per match

Guabirá
1.80
Club Universitario
0.59

allows per match

Guabirá
1.16
Club Universitario
2.05

finishing

Guabirá+0.00on par
Club Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guabirá ↓

Club Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Guabirá or draw
83%
Guabirá or Club Universitario
78%
Draw or Club Universitario
38%

Winning margin

Guabirá wins by 2+
37%
Club Universitario wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Guabirá 1+ goals
85%
Guabirá 2+ goals
57%
Guabirá 3+ goals
30%
Club Universitario 1+ goals
59%
Club Universitario 2+ goals
22%
Club Universitario 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Guabirá (draw refunded)
79%
Club Universitario (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guabirá at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.16 · 128 matches

Club Universitario away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guabirá attack 1.80 + Club Universitario defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.92

Club Universitario attack 0.59 + Guabirá defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Guabirá scores more
62%
level
22%
Club Universitario scores more
17%

Guabirá at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Guabirá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Guabirá 1–0 Club Universitario

Guabirá beat Club Universitario 1-0 in Primera División on May 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Gilberto Parada in Montero.