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Club Universitario vs Guabirá — Primera División 2019

Club Universitario
Club Universitario
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guabirá
Guabirá
9/17/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 18Estadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Club Universitario54%
×Draw23%
Guabirá23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Universitario
1.86
Guabirá
1.14

Club Universitario creates 63% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 129 away

creates per match

Club Universitario
1.45
Guabirá
0.92

allows per match

Club Universitario
1.36
Guabirá
2.27

finishing

Club Universitario+0.00on par
Guabirá+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Universitario ↓

Guabirá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Club Universitario or draw
77%
Club Universitario or Guabirá
77%
Draw or Guabirá
46%

Winning margin

Club Universitario wins by 2+
31%
Guabirá wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Club Universitario 1+ goals
84%
Club Universitario 2+ goals
55%
Club Universitario 3+ goals
28%
Guabirá 1+ goals
68%
Guabirá 2+ goals
32%
Guabirá 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Club Universitario (draw refunded)
70%
Guabirá (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Universitario at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Guabirá away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Universitario attack 1.45 + Guabirá defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.86

Guabirá attack 0.92 + Club Universitario defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Club Universitario scores more
54%
level
23%
Guabirá scores more
23%

Club Universitario at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Club Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Club Universitario 1–1 Guabirá

Club Universitario and Guabirá drew 1-1 in Primera División on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Patria in Sucre.