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Guabirá vs Blooming — Primera División 2026

Guabirá
Guabirá
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Blooming
Blooming
C. Barco 80' (pen)
12/14/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 30Estadio Gilberto Parada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Guabirá60%
×Draw21%
Blooming20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guabirá
2.06
Blooming
1.09

Guabirá creates 89% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 131 away

creates per match

Guabirá
1.82
Blooming
0.99

allows per match

Guabirá
1.19
Blooming
2.31

finishing

Guabirá+0.00on par
Blooming+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guabirá ↓

Blooming →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Guabirá or draw
80%
Guabirá or Blooming
79%
Draw or Blooming
40%

Winning margin

Guabirá wins by 2+
36%
Blooming wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Guabirá 1+ goals
87%
Guabirá 2+ goals
61%
Guabirá 3+ goals
34%
Blooming 1+ goals
66%
Blooming 2+ goals
30%
Blooming 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Guabirá (draw refunded)
75%
Blooming (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guabirá at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.19 · 127 matches

Blooming away — creates 0.99, concedes 2.31 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guabirá attack 1.82 + Blooming defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.06

Blooming attack 0.99 + Guabirá defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Guabirá scores more
60%
level
21%
Blooming scores more
20%

Guabirá at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Guabirá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
C. BarcoGuabiráGuabirá · M
7.6

Match Events

25'
Denilson Duran
43'
Milciades Portillo
45+4'
Richard Spenhay
50'
M. Cabral← M. A. Becerra
63'
C. Barco← Neto Acara
69'
David Robles
70'
K. Mina← Rafinha
70'
J. Gonzales← M. Villarroel
70'
G. Cadore← G. Centella
76'
Gustavo PeredoPenalty confirmed
78'
César Romero
79'
Braulio Uraezaña
80'
C. BarcoPenalty
83'
L. Chavez← D. Duran
88'
Thiago Ribeiro
89'
G. Olguin← M. Portillo
89'
J. Velasco← Thiago Ribeiro
89'
L. Vargas← G. Peredo
90+7'
Gabriel Valverde
90+4'
Richard Spenhay
90+4'
Richard Spenhay

Possession

50%Guabirá

Shots

15Guabirá

Pass accuracy

50%Guabirá

Statistics

GuabiráBlooming
Overview
50%Possession50%
15Total Shots8
6Corners4
15Fouls16
Shots
15Total Shots8
3On Target3
6Off Target4
6Blocked1
11Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
240Total Passes255
186Accurate Passes200
78%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls16
3Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Guabirá vs Blooming

Guabirá beat Blooming 1-0 in Primera División on December 14, 2025.

Goals: C. Barco (80' pen).

Guabirá controlled possession (50%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Gilberto Parada in Montero.