Blooming 2–1 Guabirá: Result & Stats

Blooming

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Guabirá

F. Posse 49'

M. Villarroel 23'

Rafinha 69' (pen)

7/21/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 15Estadio Ramon Tahuichi Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Blooming61%

×Draw21%

Guabirá18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BloomingExpected goals in this matchGuabirá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.02

Blooming

2.06

Guabirá

1.02

Blooming creates 102% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 129 away

1.82

creates per match

0.92

1.12

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Blooming

1.82

Guabirá

0.92

allows per match

Blooming

1.12

Guabirá

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blooming+0.00on par

Guabirá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blooming ↓

Guabirá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Blooming or draw

82%

Blooming or Guabirá

79%

Draw or Guabirá

39%

Winning margin

Blooming wins by 2+

37%

Guabirá wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Blooming 1+ goals

87%

Blooming 2+ goals

61%

Blooming 3+ goals

34%

Guabirá 1+ goals

64%

Guabirá 2+ goals

27%

Guabirá 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Blooming (draw refunded)

77%

Guabirá (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blooming at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.12 · 130 matches

Guabirá away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.29 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blooming attack 1.82 + Guabirá defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.06

Guabirá attack 0.92 + Blooming defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Blooming scores more

61%

level

21%

Guabirá scores more

18%

Blooming at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Blooming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

50

M. Alaniz

Blooming · M

8.3

Match Events

23'

M. Villarroel↳ G. Vadala

44'

Santiago Etchebarne

49'

F. Posse↳ M. Alaniz

54'

Thiago Ribeiro← C. Barco

54'

K. Mina← H. Sanchez

56'

J. Valverde← S. Etchebarne

69'

RafinhaPenalty

74'

Moisés Villarroel

77'

G. Rodriguez← Rafinha

79'

M. Abisab← G. Vadala

79'

C. Menacho← R. Spenhay

87'

Gustavo Peredo

87'

S. Gil← A. Moreno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BloomingGuabirá

Overview

52%Possession48%

19Total Shots14

10Corners5

13Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots14

7On Target4

10Off Target6

2Blocked4

12Inside Box8

7Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

359Total Passes343

286Accurate Passes251

80%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4