Guabirá 5–1 ABB: Result & Stats | Primera División

Guabirá

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

ABB

H. Sanchez 90'

Rafinha 69'

Neto Acara 66'

M. Portillo 21'

K. Mina 18'

G. Rea Mendieta 10'

9/30/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 23Estadio Gilberto Parada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Guabirá63%

×Draw19%

ABB18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuabiráExpected goals in this matchABB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.15

Guabirá

2.29

ABB

1.15

Guabirá creates 99% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 21 away

1.82

creates per match

1.10

1.19

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Guabirá

1.82

ABB

1.10

allows per match

Guabirá

1.19

ABB

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guabirá+0.00on par

ABB+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guabirá ↓

ABB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Guabirá or draw

82%

Guabirá or ABB

81%

Draw or ABB

37%

Winning margin

Guabirá wins by 2+

40%

ABB wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Guabirá 1+ goals

90%

Guabirá 2+ goals

66%

Guabirá 3+ goals

40%

ABB 1+ goals

68%

ABB 2+ goals

32%

ABB 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Guabirá (draw refunded)

78%

ABB (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guabirá at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

ABB away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guabirá attack 1.82 + ABB defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.29

ABB attack 1.10 + Guabirá defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Guabirá scores more

63%

level

19%

ABB scores more

18%

Guabirá at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Guabirá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

G. Rea Mendieta↳ M. Galindo

16'

F. Pereira

18'

K. Mina↳ C. Barco

20'

21'

24'

25'

46'

46'

53'

54'

62'

R. Terrazas← A. Bejarano

64'

H. Sanchez← C. Barco

66'

Neto Acara↳ S. Gil

69'

Rafinha

70'

J. Vedia← G. Rea Mendieta

70'

M. Flores← P. Loza

70'

A. Salazar← O. Siles

76'

Rafinha

76'

L. Vargas← S. Gil

76'

G. Rodriguez← Rafinha

77'

M. Quiroga← M. Galindo

90'

Thiago Ribeiro

90'

H. Sanchez

Guabirá

ABB

23

15

4

16

34

25

A

▼

Galindo

29

Galindo

36

▼

Siles

30

▼

Bejarano

80

▼

Loza

17

⚽

▼

Mendieta

25

Cuellar

97

A

▼

Gil

21

⚽

24

29

77

17

A

▼

Barco

7

▼

Peredo

15

⚽A

▼

Rafinha

35

Silva

45

⚽

▼

Mina

Manager: Rolando Carlen

46'▲A. Moreno←▼G. Peredo

46'▲Neto Acara←▼K. Mina

64'▲H. Sanchez←▼C. Barco

76'▲L. Vargas←▼S. Gil

76'▲G. Rodriguez←▼Rafinha

Guabirá substitutes

12Ferrel2Barro32Olguin19Velasco8Arano37Chavez5Moreno14Parada10Sanchez23Vargas9Rodriguez50Acara

Manager: Facundo Biondi

62'▲R. Terrazas←▼A. Bejarano

70'▲J. Vedia←▼G. Rea Mendieta

70'▲M. Flores←▼P. Loza

70'▲A. Salazar←▼O. Siles

77'▲M. Quiroga←▼M. Galindo

ABB substitutes

12Pereira44Bharti14Jemio13Orihuela8Quiroga51Terrazas10Vedia11Arroyo18Flores45Salazar

Primera División: Guabirá 5–1 ABB

Guabirá beat ABB 5-1 in Primera División on September 30, 2025.

Goals: G. Rea Mendieta (10'), K. Mina (18'), M. Portillo (21'), Neto Acara (66'), Rafinha (69'), H. Sanchez (90').

The match was played at Estadio Gilberto Parada in Montero.

Guabirá vs ABB — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División: Guabirá 5–1 ABB