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ABB vs Guabirá — Primera División 2026

ABB
ABB
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guabirá
Guabirá
K. Romay 58'
G. Peredo 24'
5/16/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Municipal de El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

ABB51%
×Draw23%
Guabirá26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ABB
1.84
Guabirá
1.26

ABB creates 46% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 128 away

creates per match

ABB
1.40
Guabirá
0.92

allows per match

ABB
1.60
Guabirá
2.28

finishing

ABB+0.00on par
Guabirá+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABB ↓

Guabirá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

ABB or draw
74%
ABB or Guabirá
77%
Draw or Guabirá
49%

Winning margin

ABB wins by 2+
28%
Guabirá wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

ABB 1+ goals
84%
ABB 2+ goals
55%
ABB 3+ goals
28%
Guabirá 1+ goals
72%
Guabirá 2+ goals
36%
Guabirá 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

ABB (draw refunded)
66%
Guabirá (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABB at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Guabirá away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.28 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABB attack 1.40 + Guabirá defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.84

Guabirá attack 0.92 + ABB defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

ABB scores more
51%
level
23%
Guabirá scores more
26%

ABB at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "ABB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
K. RomayABBABB · D
8.0

Match Events

24'
G. Peredo↳ Rafinha
45+2'
Paul Arano
56'
Thiago Ribeiro
57'
Cristian Barco
57'
J. Parada← C. Barco
58'
K. Romay
59'
L. Vaca← A. Cervantes
59'
J. Rivas← M. Galindo
63'
H. Sanchez← C. P. Arano
63'
Y. Baigorria← T. Chavez
67'
Julio Rivas
69'
Ronny Montero
73'
Emanuel Paniagua
73'
Juan Carlos Parada
75'
Kevin RomayGoal cancelled
79'
Manuel Ferrel
79'
S. Melgar← G. Peredo
79'
L. Vargas← Thiago Ribeiro
84'
B. Espinoza← Paulo Henrique
90+6'
Jenry Alaca

Possession

69%ABB

Shots

16ABB

Pass accuracy

56%ABB

Statistics

ABBGuabirá
Overview
69%Possession31%
16Total Shots4
7Corners0
13Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots4
6On Target3
9Off Target1
1Blocked0
11Inside Box1
5Outside Box3
Passing
69%Possession31%
376Total Passes179
302Accurate Passes112
80%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls12
3Yellow Cards6
8Offsides4

ABB 1 – 1 Guabirá

ABB and Guabirá drew 1-1 in Primera División on May 16, 2025.

Goals: G. Peredo (24'), K. Romay (58').

ABB controlled possession (69%) and registered 16 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Alto in El Alto.