Gryf Wejherowo 0–3 Górnik Polkowice: Result & Stats

Gryf Wejherowo

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Górnik Polkowice

K. Ciupka 90+1'

K. Wacławczyk 45'

M. Bednarski 27'

7/19/2020

II Liga - East · Round 33Stadion WKS Gryf Wejherowo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gryf Wejherowo22%

×Draw23%

Górnik Polkowice54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gryf WejherowoExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.79

Gryf Wejherowo

1.06

Górnik Polkowice

1.79

Górnik Polkowice creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

0.82

creates per match

1.40

2.18

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Gryf Wejherowo

0.82

Górnik Polkowice

1.40

allows per match

Gryf Wejherowo

2.18

Górnik Polkowice

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gryf Wejherowo+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gryf Wejherowo ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Gryf Wejherowo or draw

46%

Gryf Wejherowo or Górnik Polkowice

77%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

78%

Winning margin

Gryf Wejherowo wins by 2+

8%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Gryf Wejherowo 1+ goals

65%

Gryf Wejherowo 2+ goals

29%

Gryf Wejherowo 3+ goals

9%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

83%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

53%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Gryf Wejherowo (draw refunded)

29%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gryf Wejherowo at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gryf Wejherowo attack 0.82 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.40 + Gryf Wejherowo defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gryf Wejherowo scores more

22%

level

23%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

54%

Górnik Polkowice at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

M. Bednarski

35'

M. Mycio← M. Burkhardt

45'

K. Wacławczyk

46'

R. Wika← K. Baranowski

46'

P. Mucha← M. Szuszkiewicz

46'

D. Radziemski← M. Bednarski

56'

P. Azikiewicz← M. Ekwueme

64'

K. Ciupka← K. Wacławczyk

72'

85'

90+1'

90+1'

Gryf

Górnik

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Burkhardt

35'▲M. Mycio←▼M. Burkhardt

46'▲R. Wika←▼K. Baranowski

Gryf Wejherowo substitutes

MycioWika

Manager: E. Dobi

46'▲P. Mucha←▼M. Szuszkiewicz

46'▲D. Radziemski←▼M. Bednarski

56'▲P. Azikiewicz←▼M. Ekwueme

64'▲K. Ciupka←▼K. Wacławczyk

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

MuchaRadziemskiAzikiewiczCiupka