Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gryf Wejherowo vs Chemik Police — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Gryf Wejherowo
Gryf Wejherowo
FT
0 – 0
Chemik Police
Chemik Police
6/2/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Stadion WKS Gryf Wejherowo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gryf Wejherowo58%
×Draw20%
Chemik Police22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gryf Wejherowo
2.23
Chemik Police
1.32

Gryf Wejherowo creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gryf Wejherowo
1.47
Chemik Police
0.88

allows per match

Gryf Wejherowo
1.76
Chemik Police
3.00

finishing

Gryf Wejherowo+0.00on par
Chemik Police+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gryf Wejherowo ↓

Chemik Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gryf Wejherowo or draw
78%
Gryf Wejherowo or Chemik Police
80%
Draw or Chemik Police
42%

Winning margin

Gryf Wejherowo wins by 2+
36%
Chemik Police wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gryf Wejherowo 1+ goals
89%
Gryf Wejherowo 2+ goals
65%
Gryf Wejherowo 3+ goals
38%
Chemik Police 1+ goals
73%
Chemik Police 2+ goals
38%
Chemik Police 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gryf Wejherowo (draw refunded)
72%
Chemik Police (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gryf Wejherowo at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Chemik Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gryf Wejherowo attack 1.47 + Chemik Police defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.23

Chemik Police attack 0.88 + Gryf Wejherowo defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gryf Wejherowo scores more
58%
level
20%
Chemik Police scores more
22%

Gryf Wejherowo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gryf Wejherowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gryf Wejherowo vs Chemik Police

Gryf Wejherowo and Chemik Police drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on June 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion WKS Gryf Wejherowo in Wejherowo.