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Chemik Police vs Gryf Wejherowo — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Chemik Police
Chemik Police
FT
2 – 3
Gryf Wejherowo
Gryf Wejherowo
8/22/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chemik Police28%
×Draw22%
Gryf Wejherowo50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemik Police
1.38
Gryf Wejherowo
1.92

Gryf Wejherowo creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Chemik Police
0.76
Gryf Wejherowo
1.18

allows per match

Chemik Police
2.65
Gryf Wejherowo
2.00

finishing

Chemik Police+0.00on par
Gryf Wejherowo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemik Police ↓

Gryf Wejherowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Chemik Police or draw
50%
Chemik Police or Gryf Wejherowo
78%
Draw or Gryf Wejherowo
72%

Winning margin

Chemik Police wins by 2+
12%
Gryf Wejherowo wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Chemik Police 1+ goals
75%
Chemik Police 2+ goals
40%
Chemik Police 3+ goals
16%
Gryf Wejherowo 1+ goals
85%
Gryf Wejherowo 2+ goals
57%
Gryf Wejherowo 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Chemik Police (draw refunded)
36%
Gryf Wejherowo (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemik Police at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Gryf Wejherowo away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemik Police attack 0.76 + Gryf Wejherowo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gryf Wejherowo attack 1.18 + Chemik Police defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chemik Police scores more
28%
level
22%
Gryf Wejherowo scores more
50%

Gryf Wejherowo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gryf Wejherowo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chemik Police vs Gryf Wejherowo

Gryf Wejherowo beat Chemik Police 3-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Police.