Gryf Wejherowo 1–1 Bytovia Bytów: Result & Stats

Gryf Wejherowo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bytovia Bytów

9/1/2019

II Liga - East · Round 7Stadion WKS Gryf Wejherowo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gryf Wejherowo31%

×Draw24%

Bytovia Bytów45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gryf WejherowoExpected goals in this matchBytovia Bytów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.68

Gryf Wejherowo

1.34

Bytovia Bytów

1.68

Bytovia Bytów creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

0.82

creates per match

1.17

2.18

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Gryf Wejherowo

0.82

Bytovia Bytów

1.17

allows per match

Gryf Wejherowo

2.18

Bytovia Bytów

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gryf Wejherowo+0.00on par

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gryf Wejherowo ↓

Bytovia Bytów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Gryf Wejherowo or draw

55%

Gryf Wejherowo or Bytovia Bytów

76%

Draw or Bytovia Bytów

69%

Winning margin

Gryf Wejherowo wins by 2+

13%

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Gryf Wejherowo 1+ goals

74%

Gryf Wejherowo 2+ goals

39%

Gryf Wejherowo 3+ goals

15%

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

81%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

50%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Gryf Wejherowo (draw refunded)

40%

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gryf Wejherowo at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Bytovia Bytów away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gryf Wejherowo attack 0.82 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.17 + Gryf Wejherowo defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gryf Wejherowo scores more

31%

level

24%

Bytovia Bytów scores more

45%

Bytovia Bytów at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff