Bytovia Bytów 1–1 Gryf Wejherowo: Result & Stats

Bytovia Bytów

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gryf Wejherowo

6/7/2020

II Liga - East · Round 24Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bytovia Bytów69%

×Draw18%

Gryf Wejherowo13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bytovia BytówExpected goals in this matchGryf Wejherowo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.95

Bytovia Bytów

2.38

Gryf Wejherowo

0.95

Bytovia Bytów creates 151% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

1.57

creates per match

0.53

1.37

allows per match

3.18

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.57

Gryf Wejherowo

0.53

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.37

Gryf Wejherowo

3.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Gryf Wejherowo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Gryf Wejherowo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw

87%

Bytovia Bytów or Gryf Wejherowo

82%

Draw or Gryf Wejherowo

31%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

46%

Gryf Wejherowo wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

91%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

68%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

42%

Gryf Wejherowo 1+ goals

61%

Gryf Wejherowo 2+ goals

25%

Gryf Wejherowo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

84%

Gryf Wejherowo (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Gryf Wejherowo away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.57 + Gryf Wejherowo defence 3.18 → ÷2 → 2.38

Gryf Wejherowo attack 0.53 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more

69%

level

18%

Gryf Wejherowo scores more

13%

Bytovia Bytów at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff