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Grünwald vs 1860 München II — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Grünwald
Grünwald
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
1860 München II
1860 München II
7/20/2024Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 1Sportplatz Grünwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Grünwald37%
×Draw22%
1860 München II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grünwald
1.73
1860 München II
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 66 away

creates per match

Grünwald
2.13
1860 München II
1.67

allows per match

Grünwald
1.94
1860 München II
1.32

finishing

Grünwald+0.00on par
1860 München II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grünwald ↓

1860 München II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Grünwald or draw
60%
Grünwald or 1860 München II
78%
Draw or 1860 München II
63%

Winning margin

Grünwald wins by 2+
19%
1860 München II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Grünwald 1+ goals
82%
Grünwald 2+ goals
52%
Grünwald 3+ goals
25%
1860 München II 1+ goals
83%
1860 München II 2+ goals
54%
1860 München II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Grünwald (draw refunded)
48%
1860 München II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grünwald at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

1860 München II away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.32 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grünwald attack 2.13 + 1860 München II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.73

1860 München II attack 1.67 + Grünwald defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Grünwald scores more
37%
level
22%
1860 München II scores more
40%

1860 München II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "1860 München II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Grünwald 2–4 1860 München II

1860 München II beat Grünwald 4-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Grünwald in Grünwald.