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1860 München II vs Grünwald — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

1860 München II
1860 München II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Grünwald
Grünwald
10/26/2024Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 18Sportanlage Gilching

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

1860 München II70%
×Draw17%
Grünwald13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1860 München II
2.60
Grünwald
1.05

1860 München II creates 148% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 16 away

creates per match

1860 München II
2.27
Grünwald
1.25

allows per match

1860 München II
0.85
Grünwald
2.94

finishing

1860 München II+0.00on par
Grünwald+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München II ↓

Grünwald →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

1860 München II or draw
87%
1860 München II or Grünwald
83%
Draw or Grünwald
30%

Winning margin

1860 München II wins by 2+
48%
Grünwald wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

1860 München II 1+ goals
92%
1860 München II 2+ goals
73%
1860 München II 3+ goals
47%
Grünwald 1+ goals
65%
Grünwald 2+ goals
28%
Grünwald 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

1860 München II (draw refunded)
84%
Grünwald (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.85 · 67 matches

Grünwald away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München II attack 2.27 + Grünwald defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.60

Grünwald attack 1.25 + 1860 München II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

1860 München II scores more
70%
level
17%
Grünwald scores more
13%

1860 München II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "1860 München II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1860 München II vs Grünwald

1860 München II beat Grünwald 4-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sportanlage Gilching in Gilching.