Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Groupe Bazano vs FC Tshikas — Ligue 1 2019

Groupe Bazano
Groupe Bazano
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
FC Tshikas
FC Tshikas
11/22/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Groupe Bazano50%
×Draw26%
FC Tshikas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groupe Bazano
1.48
FC Tshikas
0.93

Groupe Bazano creates 59% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Groupe Bazano
1.28
FC Tshikas
0.67

allows per match

Groupe Bazano
1.19
FC Tshikas
1.67

finishing

Groupe Bazano+0.00on par
FC Tshikas+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groupe Bazano ↓

FC Tshikas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Groupe Bazano or draw
76%
Groupe Bazano or FC Tshikas
74%
Draw or FC Tshikas
50%

Winning margin

Groupe Bazano wins by 2+
25%
FC Tshikas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Groupe Bazano 1+ goals
77%
Groupe Bazano 2+ goals
43%
Groupe Bazano 3+ goals
19%
FC Tshikas 1+ goals
61%
FC Tshikas 2+ goals
24%
FC Tshikas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)
68%
FC Tshikas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groupe Bazano at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 75 matches

FC Tshikas away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groupe Bazano attack 1.28 + FC Tshikas defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Tshikas attack 0.67 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Groupe Bazano scores more
50%
level
26%
FC Tshikas scores more
24%

Groupe Bazano at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Groupe Bazano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Groupe Bazano 3–2 FC Tshikas

Groupe Bazano beat FC Tshikas 3-2 in Ligue 1 on November 22, 2025.