FC Tshikas 1–0 Groupe Bazano: Result & Stats

FC Tshikas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Groupe Bazano

1/18/2026

Ligue 1 · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FC Tshikas40%

×Draw31%

Groupe Bazano29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TshikasExpected goals in this matchGroupe Bazano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.89

FC Tshikas

1.10

Groupe Bazano

0.89

FC Tshikas creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

0.93

creates per match

0.70

1.07

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

FC Tshikas

0.93

Groupe Bazano

0.70

allows per match

FC Tshikas

1.07

Groupe Bazano

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Tshikas+0.00on par

Groupe Bazano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tshikas ↓

Groupe Bazano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

FC Tshikas or draw

71%

FC Tshikas or Groupe Bazano

69%

Draw or Groupe Bazano

60%

Winning margin

FC Tshikas wins by 2+

16%

Groupe Bazano wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Tshikas 1+ goals

67%

FC Tshikas 2+ goals

30%

FC Tshikas 3+ goals

10%

Groupe Bazano 1+ goals

59%

Groupe Bazano 2+ goals

22%

Groupe Bazano 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FC Tshikas (draw refunded)

58%

Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tshikas at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Groupe Bazano away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tshikas attack 0.93 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Groupe Bazano attack 0.70 + FC Tshikas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Tshikas scores more

40%

level

31%

Groupe Bazano scores more

29%

FC Tshikas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Tshikas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff