Grorud 1–2 Asker: Result & Stats

Grorud

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Asker

T. Dabove 51'

E. Dahl 90'

Aaron Jones 34' (pen)

10/12/2019

2. Division - Group 2 · Round 24Grorud stadion (Oslo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Grorud57%

×Draw20%

Asker23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrorudExpected goals in this matchAsker

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.36

Grorud

2.22

Asker

1.36

Grorud creates 63% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 45 away

2.62

creates per match

1.29

1.43

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Grorud

2.62

Asker

1.29

allows per match

Grorud

1.43

Asker

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grorud+0.00on par

Asker+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grorud ↓

Asker →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Grorud or draw

77%

Grorud or Asker

80%

Draw or Asker

43%

Winning margin

Grorud wins by 2+

35%

Asker wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Grorud 1+ goals

89%

Grorud 2+ goals

65%

Grorud 3+ goals

38%

Asker 1+ goals

74%

Asker 2+ goals

39%

Asker 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Grorud (draw refunded)

71%

Asker (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grorud at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.43 · 42 matches

Asker away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grorud attack 2.62 + Asker defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.22

Asker attack 1.29 + Grorud defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Grorud scores more

57%

level

20%

Asker scores more

23%

Grorud at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Grorud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

Aaron JonesPenalty

51'

T. Dabove

58'

E. Dahl← S. Solberg

67'

T. Hestad← F. Kastrati

69'

B. Sunde← L. Fuhre

75'

N. Hristov← V. Skattun

86'

F. Pettersen← T. Elsebutangen

90'

E. Dahl

Grorud

Asker

1

Lia

6

Madsen

5

⚽

Jones

3

Westerlun

8

▼

Fuhre

20

▼

Solberg

7

▼

18

19

21

11

1

3

21

5

7

10

6

16

▼

Skattun

28

▼

Elsebutan

20

Elmi

⚽

Dabove

Manager: R. Pedersen

75'▲N. Hristov←▼V. Skattun

86'▲F. Pettersen←▼T. Elsebutangen

Grorud substitutes

Hristov9Pettersen2Iqbal11Mankowitz12Viken24Novak29Flø

Manager: K. Nicol

58'▲E. Dahl←▼S. Solberg

67'▲T. Hestad←▼F. Kastrati

69'▲B. Sunde←▼L. Fuhre

Asker substitutes

13Dahl10Hestad17Sunde9Hammershaug12Kvarme14Johansen28Nicolaisen

Match Recap: Grorud vs Asker

Asker beat Grorud 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 2 on October 12, 2019.

Goals: Aaron Jones (34' pen), T. Dabove (51'), E. Dahl (90').

The match was played at Grorud stadion (Oslo).

Grorud vs Asker — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Grorud vs Asker