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Grorud vs Aalesund II — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Grorud
Grorud
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aalesund II
Aalesund II
4/11/20232. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Grorud stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Grorud52%
×Draw25%
Aalesund II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grorud
1.61
Aalesund II
0.97

Grorud creates 66% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Grorud
1.31
Aalesund II
0.85

allows per match

Grorud
1.08
Aalesund II
1.92

finishing

Grorud+0.00on par
Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grorud ↓

Aalesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Grorud or draw
77%
Grorud or Aalesund II
75%
Draw or Aalesund II
48%

Winning margin

Grorud wins by 2+
28%
Aalesund II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Grorud 1+ goals
80%
Grorud 2+ goals
48%
Grorud 3+ goals
22%
Aalesund II 1+ goals
62%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
25%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Grorud (draw refunded)
70%
Aalesund II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grorud at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grorud attack 1.31 + Aalesund II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.61

Aalesund II attack 0.85 + Grorud defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Grorud scores more
52%
level
25%
Aalesund II scores more
23%

Grorud at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Grorud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 1: Grorud 0–0 Aalesund II

Grorud and Aalesund II drew 0-0 in 2. Division - Group 1 on April 11, 2023.

The match was played at Grorud stadion in Oslo.