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Aalesund II vs Grorud — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Grorud
Grorud
10/29/20232. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Aalesund II31%
×Draw26%
Grorud43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
1.19
Grorud
1.43

Grorud creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
1.38
Grorud
1.08

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.77
Grorud
1.00

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
Grorud+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Grorud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
57%
Aalesund II or Grorud
74%
Draw or Grorud
69%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
13%
Grorud wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
70%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
33%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
12%
Grorud 1+ goals
76%
Grorud 2+ goals
42%
Grorud 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
42%
Grorud (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Grorud away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 1.38 + Grorud defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Grorud attack 1.08 + Aalesund II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aalesund II scores more
31%
level
26%
Grorud scores more
43%

Grorud at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Grorud will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 1: Aalesund II 2–1 Grorud

Aalesund II beat Grorud 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.