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Groningen vs Den Bosch — Eerste Divisie 2018

Groningen
Groningen
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Den Bosch
Den Bosch
9/29/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 8Euroborg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Groningen61%
×Draw21%
Den Bosch17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen
2.00
Den Bosch
0.96

Groningen creates 108% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 148 away

creates per match

Groningen
2.00
Den Bosch
1.19

allows per match

Groningen
0.74
Den Bosch
2.01

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par
Den Bosch+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

Den Bosch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Groningen or draw
83%
Groningen or Den Bosch
79%
Draw or Den Bosch
39%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+
37%
Den Bosch wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals
86%
Groningen 2+ goals
59%
Groningen 3+ goals
32%
Den Bosch 1+ goals
62%
Den Bosch 2+ goals
25%
Den Bosch 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)
78%
Den Bosch (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Den Bosch away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.01 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 2.00 + Den Bosch defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.00

Den Bosch attack 1.19 + Groningen defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Groningen scores more
61%
level
21%
Den Bosch scores more
17%

Groningen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Groningen vs Den Bosch

Den Bosch beat Groningen 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on September 29, 2023.

The match was played at Euroborg in Groningen.