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Den Bosch vs Groningen — Eerste Divisie 2018

Den Bosch
Den Bosch
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Groningen
Groningen
3/4/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 28Stadion De Vliert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Den Bosch30%
×Draw24%
Groningen46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Den Bosch
1.25
Groningen
1.62

Groningen creates 30% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 19 away

creates per match

Den Bosch
1.67
Groningen
1.74

allows per match

Den Bosch
1.50
Groningen
0.84

finishing

Den Bosch+0.00on par
Groningen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Den Bosch ↓

Groningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Den Bosch or draw
54%
Den Bosch or Groningen
76%
Draw or Groningen
70%

Winning margin

Den Bosch wins by 2+
12%
Groningen wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Den Bosch 1+ goals
71%
Den Bosch 2+ goals
36%
Den Bosch 3+ goals
13%
Groningen 1+ goals
80%
Groningen 2+ goals
48%
Groningen 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Den Bosch (draw refunded)
39%
Groningen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Den Bosch at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 149 matches

Groningen away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Den Bosch attack 1.67 + Groningen defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.25

Groningen attack 1.74 + Den Bosch defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Den Bosch scores more
30%
level
24%
Groningen scores more
46%

Groningen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Den Bosch 1–4 Groningen

Groningen beat Den Bosch 4-1 in Eerste Divisie on March 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion De Vliert in 's-Hertogenbosch.