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Groningen vs De Graafschap — Eredivisie 2018

Groningen
Groningen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
De Graafschap
De Graafschap
4/2/2019EredivisieEredivisie · Round 28Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Groningen60%
×Draw22%
De Graafschap18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groningen
1.95
De Graafschap
0.98

Groningen creates 99% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 21 away

creates per match

Groningen
1.33
De Graafschap
0.86

allows per match

Groningen
1.09
De Graafschap
2.57

finishing

Groningen+0.00on par
De Graafschap+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groningen ↓

De Graafschap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Groningen or draw
82%
Groningen or De Graafschap
78%
Draw or De Graafschap
40%

Winning margin

Groningen wins by 2+
36%
De Graafschap wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Groningen 1+ goals
86%
Groningen 2+ goals
58%
Groningen 3+ goals
31%
De Graafschap 1+ goals
62%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
26%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Groningen (draw refunded)
76%
De Graafschap (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groningen at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 116 matches

De Graafschap away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.57 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groningen attack 1.33 + De Graafschap defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.95

De Graafschap attack 0.86 + Groningen defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Groningen scores more
60%
level
22%
De Graafschap scores more
18%

Groningen at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Groningen vs De Graafschap

Groningen beat De Graafschap 1-0 in Eredivisie on April 2, 2019.

The match was played at Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium in Groningen.