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De Graafschap vs Groningen — Eerste Divisie 2018

De Graafschap
De Graafschap
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Groningen
Groningen
10/20/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 11Stadion De Vijverberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

De Graafschap35%
×Draw25%
Groningen39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

De Graafschap
1.34
Groningen
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 19 away

creates per match

De Graafschap
1.85
Groningen
1.74

allows per match

De Graafschap
1.11
Groningen
0.84

finishing

De Graafschap+0.00on par
Groningen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap ↓

Groningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

De Graafschap or draw
61%
De Graafschap or Groningen
75%
Draw or Groningen
65%

Winning margin

De Graafschap wins by 2+
16%
Groningen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

De Graafschap 1+ goals
74%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
39%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
15%
Groningen 1+ goals
76%
Groningen 2+ goals
42%
Groningen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap (draw refunded)
47%
Groningen (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.11 · 131 matches

Groningen away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap attack 1.85 + Groningen defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.34

Groningen attack 1.74 + De Graafschap defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

De Graafschap scores more
35%
level
25%
Groningen scores more
39%

Groningen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Groningen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: De Graafschap vs Groningen

De Graafschap beat Groningen 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on October 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion De Vijverberg in Doetinchem.