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Groene Ster vs Baronie — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Groene Ster
Groene Ster
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Baronie
Baronie
9/18/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 7Sportpark Pronsenbroek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Groene Ster52%
×Draw22%
Baronie26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Groene Ster
2.04
Baronie
1.39

Groene Ster creates 47% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 34 away

creates per match

Groene Ster
1.52
Baronie
1.21

allows per match

Groene Ster
1.56
Baronie
2.56

finishing

Groene Ster+0.00on par
Baronie+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Groene Ster ↓

Baronie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Groene Ster or draw
74%
Groene Ster or Baronie
78%
Draw or Baronie
48%

Winning margin

Groene Ster wins by 2+
31%
Baronie wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Groene Ster 1+ goals
87%
Groene Ster 2+ goals
60%
Groene Ster 3+ goals
33%
Baronie 1+ goals
75%
Baronie 2+ goals
40%
Baronie 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Groene Ster (draw refunded)
67%
Baronie (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Groene Ster at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.56 · 82 matches

Baronie away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Groene Ster attack 1.52 + Baronie defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.04

Baronie attack 1.21 + Groene Ster defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Groene Ster scores more
52%
level
22%
Baronie scores more
26%

Groene Ster at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Groene Ster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Groene Ster 3–1 Baronie

Groene Ster beat Baronie 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Pronsenbroek in Heerlen.