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Baronie vs Groene Ster — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Baronie
Baronie
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Groene Ster
Groene Ster
8/26/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 2Stadion De Blauwe Kei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Baronie36%
×Draw24%
Groene Ster40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baronie
1.46
Groene Ster
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 81 away

creates per match

Baronie
1.09
Groene Ster
0.94

allows per match

Baronie
2.18
Groene Ster
1.83

finishing

Baronie+0.00on par
Groene Ster+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baronie ↓

Groene Ster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Baronie or draw
60%
Baronie or Groene Ster
76%
Draw or Groene Ster
64%

Winning margin

Baronie wins by 2+
17%
Groene Ster wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Baronie 1+ goals
77%
Baronie 2+ goals
43%
Baronie 3+ goals
18%
Groene Ster 1+ goals
79%
Groene Ster 2+ goals
46%
Groene Ster 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Baronie (draw refunded)
47%
Groene Ster (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baronie at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Groene Ster away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baronie attack 1.09 + Groene Ster defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.46

Groene Ster attack 0.94 + Baronie defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Baronie scores more
36%
level
24%
Groene Ster scores more
40%

Groene Ster at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Groene Ster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Baronie 0–1 Groene Ster

Groene Ster beat Baronie 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion De Blauwe Kei in Breda.