Grobničan Čavle 1–1 Dugo Selo: Result & Stats

Grobničan Čavle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dugo Selo

11/16/2025

Second NL · Round 13Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Grobničan Čavle47%

×Draw23%

Dugo Selo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grobničan ČavleExpected goals in this matchDugo Selo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.36

Grobničan Čavle

1.75

Dugo Selo

1.36

Grobničan Čavle creates 29% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

1.78

creates per match

1.25

1.48

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Grobničan Čavle

1.78

Dugo Selo

1.25

allows per match

Grobničan Čavle

1.48

Dugo Selo

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Dugo Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobničan Čavle ↓

Dugo Selo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Grobničan Čavle or draw

70%

Grobničan Čavle or Dugo Selo

77%

Draw or Dugo Selo

53%

Winning margin

Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+

25%

Dugo Selo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals

83%

Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals

52%

Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals

25%

Dugo Selo 1+ goals

74%

Dugo Selo 2+ goals

39%

Dugo Selo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)

61%

Dugo Selo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobničan Čavle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.48 · 60 matches

Dugo Selo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.72 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobničan Čavle attack 1.78 + Dugo Selo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.75

Dugo Selo attack 1.25 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Grobničan Čavle scores more

47%

level

23%

Dugo Selo scores more

30%

Grobničan Čavle at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Grobničan Čavle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff