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Dugo Selo vs Grobničan Čavle — Second NL 2022

Dugo Selo
Dugo Selo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
3/9/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 18Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Dugo Selo48%
×Draw25%
Grobničan Čavle27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dugo Selo
1.64
Grobničan Čavle
1.16

Dugo Selo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Dugo Selo
1.35
Grobničan Čavle
0.98

allows per match

Dugo Selo
1.33
Grobničan Čavle
1.93

finishing

Dugo Selo+0.00on par
Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugo Selo ↓

Grobničan Čavle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dugo Selo or draw
73%
Dugo Selo or Grobničan Čavle
75%
Draw or Grobničan Čavle
52%

Winning margin

Dugo Selo wins by 2+
25%
Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dugo Selo 1+ goals
81%
Dugo Selo 2+ goals
49%
Dugo Selo 3+ goals
23%
Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
69%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
32%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dugo Selo (draw refunded)
64%
Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugo Selo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

Grobničan Čavle away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugo Selo attack 1.35 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.64

Grobničan Čavle attack 0.98 + Dugo Selo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dugo Selo scores more
48%
level
25%
Grobničan Čavle scores more
27%

Dugo Selo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dugo Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dugo Selo vs Grobničan Čavle

Dugo Selo and Grobničan Čavle drew 0-0 in Second NL on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Dugo Selo.