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Grobiņa vs Dinamo Rīga / Staicele — 1. Liga 2026

Grobiņa
Grobiņa
FT
3 – 1
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
5/18/20191. Liga1. Liga · Round 7Stadions Daugava mākslīgas laukums (Liepāja)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Grobiņa72%
×Draw15%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grobiņa
3.05
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
1.25

Grobiņa creates 144% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 19 away

creates per match

Grobiņa
3.15
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
1.16

allows per match

Grobiņa
1.35
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
2.95

finishing

Grobiņa+0.00on par
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobiņa ↓

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Grobiņa or draw
87%
Grobiņa or Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
85%
Draw or Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
28%

Winning margin

Grobiņa wins by 2+
53%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Grobiņa 1+ goals
95%
Grobiņa 2+ goals
80%
Grobiņa 3+ goals
57%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Grobiņa (draw refunded)
85%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobiņa at home — creates 3.15, concedes 1.35 · 52 matches

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobiņa attack 3.15 + Dinamo Rīga / Staicele defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 3.05

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele attack 1.16 + Grobiņa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Grobiņa scores more
72%
level
15%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele scores more
13%

Grobiņa at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Grobiņa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grobiņa vs Dinamo Rīga / Staicele

Grobiņa beat Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 3-1 in 1. Liga on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadions Daugava mākslīgas laukums (Liepāja).