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Dinamo Rīga / Staicele vs Grobiņa — 1. Liga 2026

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
FT
6 – 1
Grobiņa
Grobiņa
8/17/20191. Liga1. Liga · Round 16Stadions Rīgas Ostvalda vidusskola (Rīga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele49%
×Draw21%
Grobiņa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
2.16
Grobiņa
1.69

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele creates 28% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 54 away

creates per match

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
1.90
Grobiņa
1.72

allows per match

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele
1.65
Grobiņa
2.41

finishing

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele+0.00on par
Grobiņa+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele ↓

Grobiņa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele or draw
69%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele or Grobiņa
79%
Draw or Grobiņa
51%

Winning margin

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele wins by 2+
28%
Grobiņa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 1+ goals
88%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 2+ goals
63%
Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 3+ goals
36%
Grobiņa 1+ goals
82%
Grobiņa 2+ goals
50%
Grobiņa 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele (draw refunded)
61%
Grobiņa (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

Grobiņa away — creates 1.72, concedes 2.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele attack 1.90 + Grobiņa defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.16

Grobiņa attack 1.72 + Dinamo Rīga / Staicele defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele scores more
49%
level
21%
Grobiņa scores more
31%

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dinamo Rīga / Staicele will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Dinamo Rīga / Staicele 6–1 Grobiņa

Dinamo Rīga / Staicele beat Grobiņa 6-1 in 1. Liga on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadions Rīgas Ostvalda vidusskola (Rīga).