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Großschwarzenlohe vs ATSV Erlangen — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Großschwarzenlohe
Großschwarzenlohe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
10/2/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 13FRAPACK-Stadion Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Großschwarzenlohe33%
×Draw25%
ATSV Erlangen42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Großschwarzenlohe
1.34
ATSV Erlangen
1.54

ATSV Erlangen creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 68 away

creates per match

Großschwarzenlohe
1.00
ATSV Erlangen
1.15

allows per match

Großschwarzenlohe
1.94
ATSV Erlangen
1.69

finishing

Großschwarzenlohe+0.00on par
ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Großschwarzenlohe ↓

ATSV Erlangen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Großschwarzenlohe or draw
58%
Großschwarzenlohe or ATSV Erlangen
75%
Draw or ATSV Erlangen
67%

Winning margin

Großschwarzenlohe wins by 2+
15%
ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Großschwarzenlohe 1+ goals
74%
Großschwarzenlohe 2+ goals
39%
Großschwarzenlohe 3+ goals
15%
ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
79%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
45%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Großschwarzenlohe (draw refunded)
44%
ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Großschwarzenlohe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Großschwarzenlohe attack 1.00 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + Großschwarzenlohe defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Großschwarzenlohe scores more
33%
level
25%
ATSV Erlangen scores more
42%

ATSV Erlangen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ATSV Erlangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Großschwarzenlohe 2–1 ATSV Erlangen

Großschwarzenlohe beat ATSV Erlangen 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on October 2, 2025.

The match was played at FRAPACK-Stadion Platz 1 in Wendelstein.