ATSV Erlangen 2–1 Großschwarzenlohe: Result & Stats

ATSV Erlangen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Großschwarzenlohe

4/17/2026

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 30Sportanlage Erlangen Paul-Gossen-Strasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

ATSV Erlangen53%

×Draw22%

Großschwarzenlohe25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ATSV ErlangenExpected goals in this matchGroßschwarzenlohe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.28

ATSV Erlangen

1.98

Großschwarzenlohe

1.28

ATSV Erlangen creates 55% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 16 away

1.78

creates per match

1.19

1.37

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

ATSV Erlangen

1.78

Großschwarzenlohe

1.19

allows per match

ATSV Erlangen

1.37

Großschwarzenlohe

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Großschwarzenlohe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ATSV Erlangen ↓

Großschwarzenlohe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

ATSV Erlangen or draw

75%

ATSV Erlangen or Großschwarzenlohe

78%

Draw or Großschwarzenlohe

47%

Winning margin

ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+

31%

Großschwarzenlohe wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals

86%

ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals

59%

ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals

31%

Großschwarzenlohe 1+ goals

72%

Großschwarzenlohe 2+ goals

37%

Großschwarzenlohe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)

68%

Großschwarzenlohe (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ATSV Erlangen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

Großschwarzenlohe away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.78 + Großschwarzenlohe defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.98

Großschwarzenlohe attack 1.19 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

ATSV Erlangen scores more

53%

level

22%

Großschwarzenlohe scores more

25%

ATSV Erlangen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "ATSV Erlangen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff