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Grindavik vs HK Kopavogur — 1. Deild 2026

Grindavik
Grindavik
Preview
14:00
HK Kopavogur
HK Kopavogur
8/29/20261. Deild1. Deild · Round 21
Big match
45%
HK Kopavogur
model favours
33%22%45%

Grindavik score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
69%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Grindavik33%
×Draw22%
HK Kopavogur45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grindavik
1.64
HK Kopavogur
1.96

HK Kopavogur creates 20% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

Grindavik
1.38
HK Kopavogur
1.80

allows per match

Grindavik
2.12
HK Kopavogur
1.90

finishing

Grindavik+0.00on par
HK Kopavogur+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grindavik ↓

HK Kopavogur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Grindavik or draw
55%
Grindavik or HK Kopavogur
78%
Draw or HK Kopavogur
67%

Winning margin

Grindavik wins by 2+
16%
HK Kopavogur wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Grindavik 1+ goals
81%
Grindavik 2+ goals
49%
Grindavik 3+ goals
23%
HK Kopavogur 1+ goals
86%
HK Kopavogur 2+ goals
58%
HK Kopavogur 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Grindavik (draw refunded)
42%
HK Kopavogur (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grindavik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.12 · 26 matches

HK Kopavogur away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grindavik attack 1.38 + HK Kopavogur defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.64

HK Kopavogur attack 1.80 + Grindavik defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Grindavik scores more
33%
level
22%
HK Kopavogur scores more
45%

HK Kopavogur at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "HK Kopavogur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • HK Kopavogur score first in only 28% of matches
  • 67% of HK Kopavogur’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 4.8 goals
  • 22% of Grindavik’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Grindavik
WLDDD
Kopavogur
WWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grindavik face HK Kopavogur (1. Deild)

1. Deild returns with Grindavik hosting HK Kopavogur. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.