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Grimsby vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
Preview
14:00
Northampton
Northampton
10/17/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 11Blundell Park
Big match
38%
Northampton
model favours
35%27%38%
1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Grimsby35%
×Draw27%
Northampton38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.24
Northampton
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 141 home / 88 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.24
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Grimsby
1.34
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
62%
Grimsby or Northampton
73%
Draw or Northampton
65%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
15%
Northampton wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
71%
Grimsby 2+ goals
35%
Grimsby 3+ goals
13%
Northampton 1+ goals
72%
Northampton 2+ goals
37%
Northampton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
48%
Northampton (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 141 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.24 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

Northampton attack 1.24 + Grimsby defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Grimsby scores more
35%
level
27%
Northampton scores more
38%

Northampton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Grimsby
Attack-heavy
Northampton
Balanced
52%PossessionBiggest gap48%
68%Pass accuracy65%
12.6Shots11.9
1.65xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GrimsbyNorthampton

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Grimsby
1
Draws
2
Northampton
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%
2–11–10–30–22–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Grimsby
DDWLD
Northampton
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grimsby vs Northampton — Match Preview

Grimsby face Northampton on October 17, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Grimsby host Northampton at Blundell Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.