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Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
Preview
14:00
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
8/29/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Blundell Park
Big match
49%
Grimsby
model favours
49%25%25%

Fleetwood Town win just 19% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Grimsby49%
×Draw25%
Fleetwood Town25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.56
Fleetwood Town
1.04

Grimsby creates 50% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.62
Fleetwood Town
1.23

allows per match

Grimsby
0.85
Fleetwood Town
1.50

finishing

Grimsby+0.38scores more
Fleetwood Town-0.05on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
75%
Grimsby or Fleetwood Town
75%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
51%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
25%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
79%
Grimsby 2+ goals
46%
Grimsby 3+ goals
21%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
65%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
28%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
66%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.50 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Fleetwood Town attack 1.23 + Grimsby defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Grimsby scores more
49%
level
25%
Fleetwood Town scores more
25%

Grimsby at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Grimsby play Attack-heavy, Fleetwood Town Defensively solid

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Grimsby
Attack-heavy
Fleetwood Town
Defensively solid
52%Possession50%
68%Pass accuracy68%
12.6Shots12.0
1.62xGBiggest gap1.42
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GrimsbyFleetwood Town

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

3
Grimsby
0
Draws
4
Fleetwood Town
Avg goals: 1.7BTTS: 29%
1–01–02–10–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Grimsby
DDWLD
Town
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town — Match Preview

Grimsby face Fleetwood Town on August 29, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Grimsby host Fleetwood Town at Blundell Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.