Grimsby 1–0 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Grimsby

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fleetwood Town

J. Kabia 90'

3/17/2026

League Two · Round 38Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Grimsby53%

×Draw25%

Fleetwood Town23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrimsbyExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.98

Grimsby

1.63

Fleetwood Town

0.98

Grimsby creates 66% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.72

creates per match

1.15

0.82

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Grimsby

1.72

Fleetwood Town

1.15

allows per match

Grimsby

0.82

Fleetwood Town

1.54

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Grimsby+0.20scores more

Fleetwood Town-0.07on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw

77%

Grimsby or Fleetwood Town

75%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

47%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+

28%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals

80%

Grimsby 2+ goals

48%

Grimsby 3+ goals

22%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

62%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

26%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)

70%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.82 · 12 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.72 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.63

Fleetwood Town attack 1.15 + Grimsby defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Grimsby scores more

53%

level

25%

Fleetwood Town scores more

23%

Grimsby at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

R. Staunton

Grimsby · D

8.2

Match Events

55'

Harrison Neal

59'

Maldini Kacurri

61'

M. Virtue-Thick← H. Neal

61'

J. Norwood← W. Davies

72'

Josh Powell

72'

J. Amaluzor← D. Burns

77'

Mitchell Clark

86'

J. Soonsup-Bell← A. Cook

86'

D. E. Osong← C. Evans

87'

G. McEachran← G. D. Turi

89'

R. Bennett← J. Powell

89'

90+8'

90+4'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrimsbyFleetwood

Overview

61%Possession39%

19Total Shots5

2.80Expected Goals (xG)0.51

10Corners1

6Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots5

5On Target1

6Off Target2

8Blocked2

15Inside Box3

4Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

369Total Passes252

234Accurate Passes135

63%Pass Accuracy54%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls15

1Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2