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Fleetwood Town vs Grimsby — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Grimsby
Grimsby
P. Omochere 13'
7/29/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Fleetwood Town33%
×Draw28%
Grimsby39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.08
Grimsby
1.21

Grimsby creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.29
Grimsby
1.00

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
1.43
Grimsby
0.88

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
61%
Fleetwood Town or Grimsby
72%
Draw or Grimsby
67%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
13%
Grimsby wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
66%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
29%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
10%
Grimsby 1+ goals
70%
Grimsby 2+ goals
34%
Grimsby 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
46%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.29 + Grimsby defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Grimsby attack 1.00 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
33%
level
28%
Grimsby scores more
39%

Grimsby at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
P. Omochere
46'
A. Hunt← G. Holohan
46'
H. Clifton← C. Vernam
46'
46'
J. Marriott← R. Graydon
58'
J. Eastwood← H. Cartwright
58'
H. Rodgers← N. Maher
64'
C. Johnston← S. Rooney
64'
C. Hayes← C. Hayes
69'
K. Conteh← K. Green
69'
Rose← D. Amos
74'
A. Eisa← A. Braithwaite
79'
P. Omochere← M. Asamoah
87'
S. Robertson← S. Glenfield

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Fleetwood Town 1–0 Grimsby

Fleetwood Town beat Grimsby 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 29, 2023.

Goals: P. Omochere (13').

The match was played at Highbury Stadium in Fleetwood, Lancashire.