Greuther Fürth U19 1–2 Freiburg U19: Result & Stats

Greuther Fürth U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Freiburg U19

J. Sauer 9'

E. Kehrer 90+2' (pen)

K. Schade 39'

11/2/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 10Charly-Mai-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Greuther Fürth U1933%

×Draw22%

Freiburg U1945%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greuther Fürth U19Expected goals in this matchFreiburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.87

Greuther Fürth U19

1.57

Freiburg U19

1.87

Freiburg U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 67 away

1.45

creates per match

1.76

1.98

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.45

Freiburg U19

1.76

allows per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.98

Freiburg U19

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth U19 or draw

55%

Greuther Fürth U19 or Freiburg U19

78%

Draw or Freiburg U19

67%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

16%

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

79%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

46%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

21%

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

85%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

56%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.98 · 65 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.45 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.57

Freiburg U19 attack 1.76 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

33%

level

22%

Freiburg U19 scores more

45%

Freiburg U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

J. Sauer

39'

L. Gindorf← N. Keckeisen

39'

R. Hinrichsen← G. Furrer

39'

K. Schade

66'

J. Köstler← J. Sauer

72'

N. Lockermann← M. Bachmann

78'

K. Taher← C. Dierke

80'

M. Maier← L. Kehl

87'

N. Schories← D. Dinyer

90+3'

A. Boujafaar← K. Ezekwem

90+2'

E. KehrerPenalty

Greuther

Freiburg

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Sauer

Manager: M. Ried

66'▲J. Köstler←▼J. Sauer

72'▲N. Lockermann←▼M. Bachmann

78'▲K. Taher←▼C. Dierke

87'▲N. Schories←▼D. Dinyer

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

KöstlerLockermannTaherSchoriesPfabOralOjanen

Manager: T. Stamm

39'▲L. Gindorf←▼N. Keckeisen

39'▲R. Hinrichsen←▼G. Furrer

80'▲M. Maier←▼L. Kehl

90+3'▲A. Boujafaar←▼K. Ezekwem

Freiburg U19 substitutes

GindorfHinrichsenMaierBoujafaarZenginMackRepple

Match Recap: Greuther Fürth U19 vs Freiburg U19

Freiburg U19 beat Greuther Fürth U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 2, 2019.

Goals: J. Sauer (9'), K. Schade (39'), E. Kehrer (90+2' pen).

The match was played at Charly-Mai-Sportanlage in Fürth.

Greuther Fürth U19 vs Freiburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Greuther Fürth U19 vs Freiburg U19