Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Freiburg U19 vs Greuther Fürth U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Freiburg U19
Freiburg U19
CANC
11:00
Greuther Fürth U19
Greuther Fürth U19
4/10/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 16Möslestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Freiburg U1955%
×Draw20%
Greuther Fürth U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freiburg U19
2.38
Greuther Fürth U19
1.56

Freiburg U19 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 67 away

creates per match

Freiburg U19
2.44
Greuther Fürth U19
1.54

allows per match

Freiburg U19
1.59
Greuther Fürth U19
2.31

finishing

Freiburg U19+0.00on par
Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg U19 ↓

Greuther Fürth U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Freiburg U19 or draw
75%
Freiburg U19 or Greuther Fürth U19
80%
Draw or Greuther Fürth U19
45%

Winning margin

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+
35%
Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Freiburg U19 1+ goals
91%
Freiburg U19 2+ goals
68%
Freiburg U19 3+ goals
42%
Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals
79%
Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals
46%
Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg U19 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Greuther Fürth U19 away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.31 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg U19 attack 2.44 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.38

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.54 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Freiburg U19 scores more
55%
level
20%
Greuther Fürth U19 scores more
25%

Freiburg U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Freiburg U19 face Greuther Fürth U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with Freiburg U19 hosting Greuther Fürth U19. Match starts April 10, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Freiburg U19 host Greuther Fürth U19 at Möslestadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.