Greuther Fürth U19 1–2 1860 München U19

Greuther Fürth U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

1860 München U19

J. Lober 6'

F. Wagner 77'

F. Fuchs 31'

8/10/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 2Charly-Mai-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Greuther Fürth U1938%

×Draw22%

1860 München U1940%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Greuther Fürth U19Expected goals in this match1860 München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.84

Greuther Fürth U19

1.77

1860 München U19

1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 54 away

1.45

creates per match

1.70

1.98

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.45

1860 München U19

1.70

allows per match

Greuther Fürth U19

1.98

1860 München U19

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

1860 München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth U19 ↓

1860 München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth U19 or draw

60%

Greuther Fürth U19 or 1860 München U19

78%

Draw or 1860 München U19

62%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

19%

1860 München U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

83%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

53%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

26%

1860 München U19 1+ goals

84%

1860 München U19 2+ goals

55%

1860 München U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

48%

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.98 · 65 matches

1860 München U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.45 + 1860 München U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.77

1860 München U19 attack 1.70 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

38%

level

22%

1860 München U19 scores more

40%

1860 München U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "1860 München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

J. Lober

31'

F. Fuchs

46'

L. Stauber← M. Steinheil

63'

J. Valentin← S. Mann

63'

L. Jacob← S. Zuber

68'

L. Azambuja← M. Roithmayr

77'

F. Wagner

82'

L. Däumler← K. Delić

84'

N. Plöttner← F. Wagner

90'

L. Hohmann← E. Erdogan

Greuther

1860

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Hilbert

46'▲L. Stauber←▼M. Steinheil

63'▲J. Valentin←▼S. Mann

63'▲L. Jacob←▼S. Zuber

82'▲L. Däumler←▼K. Delić

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

StauberValentinJacobDäumlerStauberBernhardtHüttl

Manager: J. Schittenhelm

68'▲L. Azambuja←▼M. Roithmayr

84'▲N. Plöttner←▼F. Wagner

90'▲L. Hohmann←▼E. Erdogan

1860 München U19 substitutes

AzambujaPlöttnerHohmannSchurzErkocaoglanFiedlerKomar

U19 Bundesliga: Greuther Fürth U19 1–2 1860 München U19

1860 München U19 beat Greuther Fürth U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 10, 2024.

Goals: J. Lober (6'), F. Fuchs (31'), F. Wagner (77').

The match was played at Charly-Mai-Sportanlage in Fürth.

Greuther Fürth U19 vs 1860 München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Greuther Fürth U19 1–2 1860 München U19