1860 München U19 5–4 Greuther Fürth U19

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1860 München U19Expected goals in this matchGreuther Fürth U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.59

1860 München U19

2.04

Greuther Fürth U19

1.59

1860 München U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 67 away

1.76

creates per match

1.54

1.64

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

1860 München U19

1.76

Greuther Fürth U19

1.54

allows per match

1860 München U19

1.64

Greuther Fürth U19

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1860 München U19+0.00on par

Greuther Fürth U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München U19 ↓

Greuther Fürth U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

1860 München U19 or draw

70%

1860 München U19 or Greuther Fürth U19

79%

Draw or Greuther Fürth U19

52%

Winning margin

1860 München U19 wins by 2+

28%

Greuther Fürth U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

1860 München U19 1+ goals

87%

1860 München U19 2+ goals

60%

1860 München U19 3+ goals

33%

Greuther Fürth U19 1+ goals

80%

Greuther Fürth U19 2+ goals

47%

Greuther Fürth U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Greuther Fürth U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

Greuther Fürth U19 away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.31 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München U19 attack 1.76 + Greuther Fürth U19 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.04

Greuther Fürth U19 attack 1.54 + 1860 München U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

1860 München U19 scores more

48%

level

21%

Greuther Fürth U19 scores more

30%

1860 München U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "1860 München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

M. Roithmayr

8'

M. QelaOwn goal

26'

E. Erdogan

32'

E. Erdogan

46'

C. Lamb← S. Mann

46'

J. Lober← L. Bernhardt

57'

A. Imeri

63'

S. Zuber

68'

F. Wagner← E. Erdogan

68'

L. Azambuja← M. Tekin

70'

J. Lober

74'

D. Avdić← M. Roithmayr

80'

L. Grancay← N. Plöttner

80'

D. Stauber← L. Däumler

80'

J. Valentin← S. Zuber

83'

F. Wagner

90'

L. Grancay

1860

Greuther

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

🥅

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Erdogan

Manager: J. Schittenhelm

68'▲F. Wagner←▼E. Erdogan

68'▲L. Azambuja←▼M. Tekin

74'▲D. Avdić←▼M. Roithmayr

80'▲L. Grancay←▼N. Plöttner

1860 München U19 substitutes

WagnerAzambujaAvdićGrancayFiedlerPanhuysOppenrieder

Manager: R. Hilbert

46'▲C. Lamb←▼S. Mann

46'▲J. Lober←▼L. Bernhardt

80'▲D. Stauber←▼L. Däumler

80'▲J. Valentin←▼S. Zuber

Greuther Fürth U19 substitutes

LambLoberStauberValentinHuljakHopf

Match Recap: 1860 München U19 vs Greuther Fürth U19

1860 München U19 beat Greuther Fürth U19 5-4 in U19 Bundesliga on October 19, 2024.

Goals: M. Roithmayr (7'), M. Qela (8' o.g.), E. Erdogan (26', 32'), A. Imeri (57'), S. Zuber (63'), J. Lober (70'), F. Wagner (83'), L. Grancay (90').

The match was played at Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Platz 5 in München.

1860 München U19 vs Greuther Fürth U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: 1860 München U19 vs Greuther Fürth U19