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Greuther Fürth II vs Buchbach — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Greuther Fürth II
Greuther Fürth II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Buchbach
Buchbach
11/18/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 21Sportanlage Burgfarrnbach Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Greuther Fürth II45%
×Draw25%
Buchbach30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greuther Fürth II
1.59
Buchbach
1.25

Greuther Fürth II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 86 away

creates per match

Greuther Fürth II
1.42
Buchbach
1.06

allows per match

Greuther Fürth II
1.45
Buchbach
1.77

finishing

Greuther Fürth II+0.00on par
Buchbach+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greuther Fürth II ↓

Buchbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Greuther Fürth II or draw
70%
Greuther Fürth II or Buchbach
75%
Draw or Buchbach
55%

Winning margin

Greuther Fürth II wins by 2+
23%
Buchbach wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Greuther Fürth II 1+ goals
80%
Greuther Fürth II 2+ goals
47%
Greuther Fürth II 3+ goals
21%
Buchbach 1+ goals
71%
Buchbach 2+ goals
36%
Buchbach 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Greuther Fürth II (draw refunded)
60%
Buchbach (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greuther Fürth II at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

Buchbach away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.77 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greuther Fürth II attack 1.42 + Buchbach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.59

Buchbach attack 1.06 + Greuther Fürth II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Greuther Fürth II scores more
45%
level
25%
Buchbach scores more
30%

Greuther Fürth II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Greuther Fürth II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Greuther Fürth II 4–0 Buchbach

Greuther Fürth II beat Buchbach 4-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Burgfarrnbach Platz 1 in Fürth.