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Buchbach vs Greuther Fürth II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Buchbach
Buchbach
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Greuther Fürth II
Greuther Fürth II
8/11/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 4SMR-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Buchbach44%
×Draw24%
Greuther Fürth II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buchbach
1.67
Greuther Fürth II
1.40

Buchbach creates 19% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 87 away

creates per match

Buchbach
1.71
Greuther Fürth II
1.33

allows per match

Buchbach
1.46
Greuther Fürth II
1.62

finishing

Buchbach+0.00on par
Greuther Fürth II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buchbach ↓

Greuther Fürth II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Buchbach or draw
68%
Buchbach or Greuther Fürth II
76%
Draw or Greuther Fürth II
56%

Winning margin

Buchbach wins by 2+
23%
Greuther Fürth II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Buchbach 1+ goals
81%
Buchbach 2+ goals
50%
Buchbach 3+ goals
23%
Greuther Fürth II 1+ goals
75%
Greuther Fürth II 2+ goals
41%
Greuther Fürth II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Buchbach (draw refunded)
58%
Greuther Fürth II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buchbach at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.46 · 87 matches

Greuther Fürth II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.62 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buchbach attack 1.71 + Greuther Fürth II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.67

Greuther Fürth II attack 1.33 + Buchbach defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Buchbach scores more
44%
level
24%
Greuther Fürth II scores more
32%

Buchbach at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Buchbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Buchbach vs Greuther Fürth II

Greuther Fürth II beat Buchbach 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on August 11, 2023.

The match was played at SMR-Arena in Buchbach.